Forecasting Argentina-like Devaluation
I'm reading Larry Kotlikoff's "Jimmy Stewart is Dead," and along with Kotlikoff's and Burns's "The Coming Generational Storm," Peter Schiff's wirtings, Chris Martenson's website and others, I'm wondering just how useful ESPlanner can be if during sometime in the next ten to twenty years we are going to experience an Argentina-like devaluation in our currency or hyperinflation.
From the little I understand about ESPlanner, the inflation assumptions are limited to about 12% per year. I'm thinking we ought to project hyperinflation and I don't believe that's possible.
Please offer suggestions on how we can best model such a horrible (but unfortunately potentially real) economic events including currency devaluation and hyperinflation. Or would you argue that ESPLanner is the wrong tool for such a scenario, other than if we model investing in gold, silver and other commodities that would likely skyrocket?
RSS
I'm not sure what the range of the inflation input is, but if the only thing you need to see is the effect of mega-inflation, then set it to whatever the maximum is (the max can be adjusted in a later release if we feel this is something that needs to be pursued). However, I suspect that there are a bunch of other things that you'll need to do as well since the rates of return will also tank. ESPlanner is an economic simulator at heart so you should be able to simulate this sort of thing as well as more normal sorts of economic events.
I'm sure Larry will chime in with further suggestions.
Best,
Dick Munroe