Monte Carlo Living Standard Trajectories
I have run cases where I repeatedly get Monte Carlo results I don't understand:
1. First, all the calculated living standard (including very low outcome) exceed the recommended living standard well into my 80's. At that point, only the Very Low outcome has a living standard slightly lower than the recommended standard, the other 4 categories substantially exceed the recommended until death at age 100 - is the program recommending a deterministic living standard that will last my lifetime in 99%+ of the outcomes?
2. Secondly, the different probabilities seem to jump around - for example low has a living standard value higher than the median and high. This seems most pronounced in the 15-20 years after retirement. What does that mean?
I am running cases that try to model beginning retirement next year, with a deferred salary income stream for 4-5 years after retirement, then living off retirement plans and social security.
Thanks !
RSS
What consumption profile are you using? The default is conservative (consumes assuming that your real returns are 1/2 your expected real returns) which show plots like this.
Best,
Dick Munroe