I've specified conservative spending in my Monte Carlo setup. Everything looks fine in the non-MC report. Everything seemingly looks great in the MC report - all graphs go from something fairly horizontal at the Specified Mean Real Return to sloping dramatically upward for the 95th percentile.
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I need to check my understanding of some of the program inputs and their interactions. I've made some assertions (below) for which I would certainly appreciate any comments or corrections.
Using Economics-based planning:
My reports were looking odd, especially the amount of social security tax paid each year, until I realized that I'd changed my salary in the Earnings tab, but it hadn't been updated in the Social Security / Future Covered Earnings tab.
When I run ESPlanner it suggests this year I should save tens of thousands less (the recommended amount is negative savings), increase discretionary spending by tens of thousands, and reduce life insurance to zero for myself and my spouse.
What does the Living Standard values in the monte carlo analysis represent, compared to the baseline reports? Specifically, two questions:
1) do they represent all spending or just discretionary spending?
2) do they represent 'per adult' or 'total household' living standard?
The program is projecting FICA tax for my wife who has no income. Also it is showing FICA tax in the year we sell our house, and have no income from employment.
I want to see the long term impact of decisions I am making. Is there a way to fool ESP into thinking it is 1/1/2018? I can estimate end of year account values based on what I know now and the decisions I am making
Approximately 6% of my investments are in gold bullion self directed IRA. How should I account for this in Esplanner? Is there an established return rate for gold? Thanks!
I don't understand what this Monte Carlo report is trying to tell me. It has columns that go all the way to 200%. Not sure how there can be a 200% probability of anything.
I am now 60, my wife is 59. We do not plan to take social security until we are each 70. Next to my retirement file date (2/1/27) ESPlanner shows a negative number (-29) and next to hers (-32).
Is there any easy way to model making a very occasional, but significant (up to 10% of balance), extra payment of principal on a mortgage?
Does the program periodically rebalance regular and retirement assets when performing a Monte Carlo simulation, or are portfolio allocations "initial conditions" only? If rebalancing isn't performed is it thought to be a bad idea or a feature to possibly be added to a future version? TIA
My pension is partially tied to the stock market. Without using Monte Carlo, is there a way I can model losses for a few years? Besides, there is not way to link a pension to stocks so Monte Carlo wonld not work.
When can we expect the next version of ESPLanner to be released
I am trying to see the difference between a pension with Inflation Index of 2% (1% less than modeled inflation) vs. and a pension with 0% Inflation Index. When I changed the index from 2% to 0% the pension didn't change. Did I miss something or is this a bug?
Just now seeing that there is a new software produce called MaxiFi. Will MaxiFi eventually replace ESPlanner? Or is it designed to compliment ESPlanner?
I live in NY state and I have one pension that will be paid by the federal government and will therefore not be taxable by NY state. I also have another pension that would be subject to NY state tax.
How can I add Bank CDs in a Monte Carlo Portfolio? I'm thinking of using the intermediate government bonds as a proxy. Most of my CDs are 5 year and I roll them over upon maturity. For a while each rollover resulted in a lower rate of return but that's now changing.
Every time I run the monte carlo simulation I get different results - I assume this is expected since the random numbers used to generate the results are different on each run. However I find the differences are significant enough that I cant rely on the results for future retirement planning.
I added several special expenditures for college, and since I know those are partially tax-deductable (depending on income limits), I thought ESplanner would figure out the fraction they were tax deductable; I think the deduction limit is $4,000 in one case and a $2,500 credit in another case.